Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007895 0.008899 0.009985 0.011245 0.012668 0.014228 0.016067
2026-01-11 0.006402 0.007805 0.009446 0.011508 0.014036 0.017036 0.020875
2026-01-18 0.005412 0.006964 0.008881 0.011427 0.014727 0.018869 0.024483
2026-01-25 0.004742 0.006376 0.008486 0.011417 0.015395 0.020624 0.028052
2026-02-01 0.004167 0.005819 0.008035 0.011235 0.015754 0.021938 0.031088
2026-02-08 0.003786 0.005470 0.007807 0.011301 0.016416 0.023671 0.034812
2026-02-15 0.003425 0.005102 0.007503 0.011208 0.016813 0.025027 0.038075
2026-02-22 0.003208 0.004918 0.007439 0.011445 0.017693 0.027136 0.042620
2026-03-01 0.002871 0.004518 0.007012 0.011082 0.017612 0.027763 0.044902
2026-03-08 0.002615 0.004217 0.006704 0.010870 0.017733 0.028690 0.047710
2026-03-15 0.002373 0.003917 0.006370 0.010580 0.017691 0.029334 0.050083
2026-03-22 0.002290 0.003867 0.006431 0.010938 0.018740 0.031837 0.055791
2026-03-29 0.002177 0.003761 0.006396 0.011138 0.019550 0.034026 0.061195
2026-04-05 0.002084 0.003680 0.006396 0.011397 0.020484 0.036506 0.067349
2026-04-12 0.001943 0.003503 0.006215 0.011316 0.020799 0.037906 0.071638
2026-04-19 0.001827 0.003361 0.006080 0.011306 0.021236 0.039552 0.076520
2026-04-26 0.001697 0.003181 0.005864 0.011126 0.021334 0.040569 0.080266
2026-05-03 0.001612 0.003079 0.005784 0.011191 0.021903 0.042514 0.086000
2026-05-10 0.001514 0.002944 0.005628 0.011099 0.022153 0.043854 0.090623
2026-05-17 0.001464 0.002898 0.005640 0.011334 0.023068 0.046577 0.098326
2026-05-24 0.001348 0.002713 0.005367 0.010975 0.022746 0.046772 0.100710
2026-05-31 0.001258 0.002574 0.005174 0.010765 0.022713 0.047551 0.104405
2026-06-07 0.001168 0.002426 0.004953 0.010478 0.022491 0.047913 0.107207